A new view of the Arctic’s transformation and its impact on national security

The continued melting of the Arctic’s polar ice pack is transforming this once forbidding part of the Earth into a new and hotly contested region. Climate change is opening up new avenues for global shipping and newly-accessible territories rich in mineral and fossil fuel reserves.

It’s also unleashing not just environmental concerns but complex geopolitical and economic tensions with profound implications for U.S. national security, according to Sue Kalweit, former director of analysis for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and now a managing director at Deloitte Risk and Financial Advisory’s government and public services practice.

The Arctic region has significant implications for national security for three reasons, said Kalweit in a new podcast interview released on FedScoop:

1. Strategic location: “The Arctic’s geographical position makes it a potential theater for military operations, particularly for countries in the northern hemisphere. [It] provides the shortest routes between North America, Europe, and Asia, which can be used for military logistics and strategic advantage,” she noted.

2. Natural resources: “The Arctic is rich in fossil fuels, fish and minerals.” She cited the U.S. Geological Survey, which estimates the region holds “13% of the world’s undiscovered oil resources and 30% of undiscovered gas reserves. Control or influence over these resources can be a significant factor in national security.”

3. Maritime commerce. “The opening of new sea routes, particularly the northern sea route along the Russian coast, can significantly reduce shipping times between Asia and Europe and potentially transform global trade patterns. Disruptions and access to these maritime shipping lanes caused by conflict could have global supply chain and economic impact for sovereignty claims,” she explains.

Various civilian and defense agencies — from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security and Interior — have already begun developing long-term strategies for the changing Arctic landscape. Those initiatives gained momentum in 2022 when The White House released the first in a series of cross-governmental strategic planning efforts.

Key to those efforts is the need to develop predictive models that build on the growing volume of high-resolution geospatial images and data of the Arctic region, according to Kalweit. That, she explained, is the genesis behind a project Deloitte and Google are working on to help agencies gain a clearer view of the Arctic’s future,

“We’ve partnered with Google Cloud to develop a tool using Google Earth Engine that models and visualizes the future ice melt and its impact over time. This tool allows us to overlay data on natural resources, shipping lanes, and territorial claims that provide them a comprehensive understanding of the Arctic’s future with the ability to conduct what-if scenario planning,” she explained.

Kalweit, speaking with Scoop News Group’s Wyatt Kash, highlighted how understanding potential conflict zones will likely benefit government, industry, and national security analysts.

“What we think is special about our tool is that we visualize the five different climate scenarios from a best-case to a worst-case… to build models for the future ice melt and understand where the opportunities or the risk lies based on how the climate changes and it evolves,” Kalweit said.

The tool enables policymakers to conduct “what if” scenario planning, overlaying data on natural resources, shipping lanes, and territorial claims to comprehensively understand the Arctic’s future.

This podcast is sponsored by Deloitte.

Listen to the entire podcast conversation on FedScoop. This podcast segment was sponsored by Deloitte. Learn more about how Deloitte and Google are helping public sector policymakers use data and analytic tools to make better decisions.

Sue Kalweit is a seasoned geospatial intelligence expert, having served as the director of analysis at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), where she led the agency’s efforts to modernize geospatial intelligence and imagery analysis and ensure its alignment with national security priorities.